Sunday, September 20, 2015

Net Cash and Net Farm Income Expected to Drop

From the USDA:

Both net cash and net farm income are forecast to decline for the second consecutive year after reaching recent historic highs in 2013 (in nominal terms).

Net cash income is expected to fall by 21 percent in 2015, while the forecast for a 36 percent drop in net farm income would be the largest since 1983 (in both nominal and inflation-adjusted terms).

Highlights of the U.S. Department of Agriculture report for August:

** Crop receipts are expected to decrease by over 6 percent ($12.9 billion) in 2015, led by a forecast $7.1 billion decline in corn receipts, a $3.4 billion drop in soybean receipts and a $1.6 billion drop in wheat receipts.

** Livestock receipts could fall by over 9 percent ($19.4 billion) in 2015, due to a forecast 29 percent drop in dairy and a 27 percent decline in hog receipts.

** Total production expenses are forecast to fall for the first time since 2009. Energy inputs and feed are expected to have the largest declines. Expenses are forecast to increase for labor, interest and property taxes.

** Government payments are projected to rise 16 percent ($1.6 billion) to $11.4 billion in 2015. At $11.4 billion, 2015’s payments would be the largest since 2010.

** Declining assets resulting from a modest decline in farmland values and higher debt are forecast to create a 4.8 percent decline in equity, the first drop since 2009.

** After several years of steady improvement, farm financial risk indicators such as the debt-to-asset ratio are expected to rise in 2015, indicating increasing financial pressure on the sector. However, debt-to-asset and debt-to-equity ratios remain low relative to historical levels.

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